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India-US Trade Deal: A look at India-US trade negotiations since the announcement of US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs

PM Modi with President Donald Trump at the White House in US. (IMAGE: REUTERS)

India and the United States are likely to make a final decision on a mini-trade deal within the next 24 to 48 hours, CNBC-TV18 reported on Sunday citing sources.

The average tariff under the mini deal is likely to be around 10%, while the talks on comprehensive Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) are expected to begin after July 9, which marks the end of the 90-day suspension period of the Trump tariffs announced on April 2 on dozens of countries, including India, the report added.

As per the report, the mini-trade deal is likely to have annual quotas for lower tariffs on certain labour-intensive products from India. Certain American agricultural products, such as pecan nuts and blueberries, may be provided with lower tax rates.

A look at India-US trade negotiations since the announcement of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs:

April 2: Trump announces 10% baseline tariff on most imports, calling it the ‘Liberation Day’ action. He says a second wave of reciprocal tariffs (up to 26-27%) is set to hit countries with “unfair trade barriers”, including India, starting April 9.

April 5: The first tariff wave takes effect.

India then opens negotiations immediately, offering to reduce tariffs on select U.S. exports, including motorcycles (Harley-Davidson), whiskey, network and IT hardware. India seeks to shield sensitive areas like dairy and agriculture.

April negotiations: India & the US sign a negotiation framework (Terms of Reference). They focus on tariff reduction, market access, digital goods, excluding immigration and IPR (intellectual property rights).

India proposes “zero-duty” treatment on certain strategic imports under PLI (Production Linked Incentive) schemes. Also, a “forward MFN” clause, which means if India gives better terms to another country in the future, the US gets the same benefits.

April 9: Trump announces a 90-day pause on implementing higher, country-specific reciprocal 26-27% tariffs, temporarily easing pressure on several countries, including India.

May 20 & 23: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal holds meetings in Washington, D.C. India and the US aim for a “mini-deal” by early July to prevent the 26-27% tariff hike.

India agrees to lower tariffs on select US agri and industrial goods. It keeps dairy and wheat sectors protected due to domestic sensitivity. Trump publicly praises India for offering “zero tariffs on key items”. Markets react positively: Sensex jumps 1,300+ points.

June: The final rounds of negotiation begin. Delegations from both sides exchange legal texts. Rules of origin, certification and compliance, dispute resolution clauses remain the sticking points. US officials say the deal is “90% done” but caution that final compromises are needed.

July 1: EAM S Jaishankar says an agreement needs “give and take.” India insists on excluding dairy and rice. The US continues to push for greater agri access.

July 6: Trump extends tariff deadline to August 1, praising India’s efforts but warning other countries.

July 7: Talks continue at high levels. US Treasury Secretary Bessent says deal is “very close”. Financial markets stabilise in anticipation.

July 7: Trump says he will send the first set of tariff letters, including trade deals, to several countries, which are expected to include new reciprocal tariff rates that will take effect from August 1. The US president announces that any country aligning with the BRICS, which includes India, Brazil, China and Russia, will be charged with an additional 10% tariffs.

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Manjiri Joshi

At the news desk for 17 years, the story of her life has revolved around finding pun, facts while reporting, on radio, heading a daily newspaper desk, teaching mass media students to now editing special copies …Read More

At the news desk for 17 years, the story of her life has revolved around finding pun, facts while reporting, on radio, heading a daily newspaper desk, teaching mass media students to now editing special copies … Read More

News explainers India-US Trade Deal A Few Hours Away? How Govt Handled Trump Tariffs, Steered Negotiations



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A 14-member team of engineers from the UK is carrying out repairs on a state-of-the-art British fighter jet that has been stuck at an airport in India for more than three weeks.

The F-35B landed on 14 June at Thiruvananthapuram airport in the southern state of Kerala where it was diverted after it ran into bad weather during a sortie in the Indian Ocean.

The plane then reported a technical snag and was unable to return to the HMS Prince of Wales, the Royal Navy’s flagship carrier.

Its prolonged presence on Indian soil has sparked curiosity and raised questions about how such a modern aircraft could remain stranded in a foreign country for so long.

Since the jet’s landing, engineers from HMS Prince of Wales had assessed the aircraft, but they were unable to fix it.

On Sunday, the British High Commission said in a statement that a team of engineers from UK was “deployed to Thiruvananthapuram airport to assess and repair the F-35B aircraft”.

It said the team was “carrying specialist equipment necessary for the movement and repair process”.

Video footage shared by Indian news agencies ANI and PTI showed a British Royal Air Force Airbus landing at Thiruvananthapuram to drop the team of technical experts.

Videos showed the F-35B being towed away to a hangar – the high commission had earlier said they had “accepted the offer to move the craft to the Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facility”, but were waiting for equipment to arrive from the UK.

F-35Bs are highly advanced stealth jets, built by Lockheed Martin, and are prized for their short take-off and vertical landing capability.

The $110m (£80m) jet is being guarded around the clock by six officers from the RAF.

The case of the stranded jet has also been raised in the House of Commons.

In India, images of the “lonely F-35B”, parked on the tarmac and soaked by the Kerala monsoon rains, have made it a subject jokes and memes with many suggesting that it does not want to leave the scenic state of Kerala, described as “God’s own country” in tourism brochures.

Experts say if the team of engineers is unable to repair the aircraft and make it fly worthy, it will have to be dismantled and carried out in a bigger cargo plane such as a C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft.



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Mumbai: US consul general Mike Hankey’s last day in office was on Monday. Speaking about his stint in Mumbai, Hankey said, “It’s been a great privilege serving as the US Consul General in Mumbai to further US-India partnership in western India. I’ve been honored in helping deepen cooperation in technology and innovation to foster economic growth and prosperity in both countries. I leave with immense gratitude for the warmth and friendship extended to me, and great confidence in the bright future of the US-India partnership.” TNN





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BRICS represents 39 percent of global GDP and 23 percent of global trade. It contributes 24 percent of foreign direct investment and 43 percent of global oil production. India is the founding member of BRICS and will Chair the Summit next year. This gives India leverage to foster economic cooperation among the member nations. It provides opportunities for attracting investments and access to markets abroad. During the ongoing 17th BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro India has joined other countries to urge for reforms in global institutions, greater say in the UN Security Council and better access to climate finance.

        BRICS provides India with an opportunity to boost partnerships and promote sustainable growth. In the Leaders’ Declaration announced yesterday on the first day of the Summit, it was resolved to strengthen multilateralism and reform global governance. To promote international peace, security and stability, deepen international cooperation in economics, trade and finance, combat climate change and promote sustainable, fair and inclusive development. It also decided to boost partnerships for the promotion of human, social and cultural development. BRICS is expanding with Indonesia becoming its permanent member yesterday. This can complement trade dynamics and strengthen India’s position in global affairs. India is experiencing robust economic growth with the services sector being a major contributor. This can benefit Indian companies to expand, have access to global supply chains and markets.

 



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Indian stock market ended in the negative territory for the week ended July 4, largely due to profit booking amid lingering uncertainty over the India-US trade deal, caution ahead of the start of the earnings season and foreign capital outflow.

The Nifty 50 and the Sensex closed 0.70 per cent lower each for the week, snapping their two-week gaining streak.

“The decline was primarily driven by profit-taking, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of key global trade events. Concerns around potential US trade retaliation created doubts about the timely finalisation of trade agreements with major economies, including India. However, the downside remained limited following reports of a likely interim deal between India and the US ahead of the scheduled deadline,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP of research at Religare Broking.

However, the mid and small-cap segments remained resilient. Extending gains to the second consecutive week, the Nifty Midcap 100 and the Nifty Smallcap 100 indices rose 0.50 per cent and 0.30 per cent, respectively.

While the broader trend of the market remains positive, the coming week holds several key triggers, including India-US trade deals, Q1FY26 earnings and the minutes of the US FOMC’s last meeting, that could dictate the short-term trend of the Indian stock market.

Also Read | Why is Indian stock market trading rangebound? EXPLAINED

5 key triggers for the Indian stock market in the coming week

1. India-US trade deal

Despite prolonged negotiations, there is still no clarity on when a trade deal between India and the US will be finalised.

With US President Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline set to expire in the coming week, investor anxiety is mounting over what the next few days might bring.

According to media reports, Indian negotiators returned from the US on Friday. Meanwhile, India on Friday proposed to impose retaliatory duties under the WTO norms against the US.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal on Friday stressed that India will not enter into any pact based on deadlines. He said New Delhi will not sign any agreement with the US until it is not fully finalised, properly concluded and in national interest.

Also Read | India-US trade deal elusive as deadline nears: 5 things we know

Experts say a breakthrough would be significant for export-oriented sectors such as IT, pharmaceuticals, and auto components. However, a continued impasse could negatively impact the domestic market in the short term.

“The coming week holds significant importance not only for Indian markets but for global

equities as well. The most anticipated event is the outcome of the US trade deadline on July 9, which could shape global trade dynamics,” said Mishra.

Also Read | India-US trade deal: Key expectations of the Indian stock market

2. Q1 earnings to start

India Inc.’s earnings season for the first quarter of FY26 is set to begin next week. IT majors TCS and Tata Elxsi will announce their Q1 results on Thursday, July 10, followed by retail player DMart on Friday, July 11. Growth guidance and management commentary will be closely watched and are expected to set the tone for market sentiment.

Also Read | Why does the Indian stock market expect better Q1FY26 results? Explained

3. The progress of the monsoon

The monsoon this year has been healthy. As InCred Equities pointed out, India received above-normal southwest monsoon rainfall in June 2025, with cumulative precipitation 8.9 per cent higher than the long-period average (LPA). This marked the earliest full coverage since 2020 and helped kharif crop sowing rise by a strong 11 per cent year-on-year.

Also Read | India-US trade deal: What can market expect ahead of tariff pause deadline?

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), active monsoon conditions are likely to continue over many parts of northwest, central and east India during the next six to seven days.

The progress of the monsoon will remain on investors’ radar, as it plays a key role in keeping India’s growth-inflation dynamics favourable in the medium term.

4. Foreign capital flow

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been offloading Indian equities this month amid ongoing uncertainty over India-US trade talks, stretched market valuations, and the absence of fresh positive triggers.

In July so far, FPIs have sold Indian equities worth 5,773 crore in the cash segment. A sustained foreign capital outflow can keep the domestic market subdued.

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, underscored that the resumption of FPI buying will hinge on two things- an India-US trade deal and Q1FY26 earnings trends.

“If a trade deal happens between India and the US that will be positive for markets and FPI flows. Besides, if Q1 results indicate earnings recovery, that will be positive. Disappointment on these factors can impact the market and, thereby, FPI flows,” said Vijayakumar.

5. The minutes of the US FOMC’s last meeting

Amid the buzz around trade talks and earnings, global markets will closely parse the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) June 17–18 meeting for insights into how Fed officials view inflation, growth, and the future path of interest rates.

Also Read | How a US economic slowdown may impact Indian stock market

The US Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting is scheduled for July 29–30. While experts see a potential rate cut in September, recent jobs data suggests the US labour market remains resilient, giving the Fed room to delay any immediate policy easing.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he expects the impact of tariffs to show up in inflation data over the coming months. Taken together, these developments indicate that rate cuts could remain on hold for a longer period than previously anticipated.

Read all market-related news here

Read more stories by Nishant Kumar

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.



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During the recently concluded quarter, Kalyan Jewellers launched 10 Kalyan showrooms in India, 1 Kalyan showroom in the US.

The company opened 8 showrooms of Candere, their digital-first jewellery platform.

In this financial year, the company plans to launch 170 showrooms across Kalyan and Candere formats – 75 Kalyan showrooms (all FOCO) in non-south India (including 5 larger-format flagship Kalyan showrooms), 15 Kalyan showrooms (all FOCO) across south India and international markets and 80 Candere
showrooms in India.

As of June 30, 2025, Kalyan Jewellers’ total number of showrooms across India and the Middle East stood at 406 (Kalyan India – 287, Kalyan Middle East – 36, Kalyan USA – 2, Candere – 81).



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Parliamentary affairs committee to discuss Ahmedabad plane crash, fee regulations on July 8

The parliamentary affairs committee of the Lok Sabha is set to meet on July 8, with officials from the civil aviation ministry and the DGCA in attendance. Alongside the scheduled discussion on the regulation of fees, tariffs, and other user charges, the Ahmedabad plane crash is also expected to be taken up during the meeting, according to ANI.





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India US Trade Deal Live: India seeks full rollback of US tariffs ahead of deadline, warns of retaliation

On April 2, the United States imposed an additional 26% tariff on Indian goods, which was later put on hold for 90 days. However, the existing 10% standard tariff on Indian products remains in place. According to a PTI report, India is pushing for the complete removal of the 26% duty and has cautioned that if a deal isn’t finalised before the deadline, the higher tariffs could be reinstated.



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IMD issues flash flood alert for 12 districts in Jharkhand

A flash flood warning has been issued for 12 districts in Jharkhand till 5.30 pm on Monday, as moderate to heavy rainfall lashed major parts of the state, an IMD official said.

The districts that fall under the flash flood risk include Garhwa, Palamu, Latehar, Lohardaga, Gumla, Simdega, Khunti, Ranchi, Bokaro, Saraikela, West and East Singhbhum, according to a bulletin of India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Major parts of Jharkhand, including Ranchi, have been experiencing moderate to heavy rainfall since Sunday. — PTI



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HYDERABAD: A mix of stable tropical forests and ancient climate changes led to peninsular India’s unique biodiversity over millions of years, according to a study by researchers at the CSIR-Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology in Hyderabad. By examining 33 groups of animals and plants, scientists discovered that some species slowly evolved thanks to long-term ecosystem stability, while others were shaped by drastic changes in climate and landscape between 11 and 3 million years ago.Peninsular India extends from the Aravalli mountains southwards, including the Satpuras and Vindhyas, the Eastern Ghats, the Deccan Plateau and global biodiversity hotspot of Western Ghats. It harbours highly diverse groups of animal and plant species, many of which do not occur anywhere else in the world.The study published in Ecology Letters uncovered how species evolved and disappeared across South Asia and the wider Asian region.

Stable forests key to south India’s unique biodiversity

By analysing the 33 well-studied groups of animals and plants using mathematical models, the team traced patterns of species formation (speciation) and loss (extinction) across the region. “Each of the groups comprises closely related endemic species and a common ancestor that existed at some point in time. Through millions of years, their descendants spread across the landscape and diversified into multiple species, many of which exist today,” said CCMB scientist Dr Jahnavi Joshi.The researchers found a high disparity in how species are formed or lost across groups of animals and plants. They found evolutionarily related groups, such as different kinds of lizards, exhibited similar rates of forming and losing species. They also found that half of animal and plant groups accumulated diversity gradually over millions of years. “The stability of the tropical forest ecosystems in Peninsular India has allowed for such steady diversification. As a result, this area has served as a refuge for species from severe climate changes,” said Joshi.Pragyadeep Roy, first author of the study, added: “The stability of this ecosystem is surprising given the turbulent geo-climatic past of the landmass. Peninsular India was once part of the Gondwanaland supercontinent with land masses such as Africa and Australia. It broke away 100 million years ago, drifted northward, and collided with Asia, forming the Himalayas. Despite drastic geo-climatic shifts from this movement, the biodiversity changed steadily. This highlights the resilience of its forest habitats.”“Global temperatures have been very dynamic across millions of years, and our analysis suggests earth’s temperature strongly influences how species are formed in many groups,” explained Roy. The study found that some groups experienced abrupt changes in the rates of forming new species within the time range of 11 to 3 million years ago. “This period was marked by high aridification and monsoon seasonality in Peninsular India with a major expansion of grasses, leading to shrinkage of evergreen forests to the Western Ghats and mountaintops of the Eastern Ghats. These events inflicted changes in the ranges and habitats of organisms, disrupting their earlier evolutionary trends,” the study said.





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