By Ram Singh

With economic weight shifting towards Asia-centric emerging economies, Western nations, especially the US, have keen interest in India for two reasons — counterbalancing China, and ensuring geostrategic dominance in the Indo-Pacific. India fits as the most suitable partner in the entire ballgame.

With Donald Trump’s return as the 47th US President, hyper-activism is evident in abrupt, individualistic, and transactional decisions. This evolving scenario necessitates reassessing geoeconomic and geostrategic statecraft, particularly in light of Prime Minister Modi’s US visit.

Trump’s business-centric, transactional, and unpredictable nature prioritises bilateral over multilateral deals under “America First”. His administration shifts focus from institutional frameworks to direct negotiations, disregarding global governance structures (G20, WTO, UN), engaging in transactional diplomacy (Mexico, Canada), tech and tariff wars (China), coercive diplomacy (Gaza, Panama Canal, Greenland), and unilateral military actions (Somalia, Syria). He employs tariffs, tech bans, economic sanctions, and trade curbs, reshaping diplomatic relations purely on economic calculus favouring the US.

Trump perceives the US as exploited geopolitically, geoeconomically, and geostrategically, while adopting a coercive trade policy. He has threatened Panama over Chinese investments and floated ideas of annexing Greenland and even Canada for their resources. He prioritises bilateral negotiations over lengthy multilateral protocols, ensuring economic bargains favour the US, even at the cost of strategic allies like the European Union, Canada, and Mexico. His approach deepens global divides, pushing nations to align with either the US or China/Russia, as seen in his stance on India’s Chabahar port.

The US has aggressively pursued financial and economic sanctions with limited success. Recognising threats from de-dollarisation and financial digitalisation, Trump has proposed tariffs up to 100% on adversarial markets. He is simultaneously reducing domestic corporate taxes and increasing import duties to attract investments, strengthening the dollar but making US exports uncompetitive. His transactional diplomacy is evident in postponing tariffs on Canada and Mexico after receiving better counteroffers. However, this strategy has risks, as seen in China’s reciprocal tariffs and Iran’s defiance of US pressure.

Promising to end the Russia-Ukraine war, Trump seeks unrestricted access to Ukraine’s rare earth reserves worth $26 trillion in exchange for continued military support. He rejects multilateral commitments on global public goods (climate change, sustainable development goals) and exited the Paris Climate Agreement. Advocating fossil fuel expansion, he pushes US crude oil reserves and deregulates the energy sector.

He pressures US allies to increase defence spending to 5% and promotes arms sales to India, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, and NATO members. Declaring that the US geostrategic outreach is transactional, he questions G20’s role in global governance and favours bilateral economic nationalism. his protectionist economic policies disrupt trade relationships and erode the rules-based global order, prioritising high economic returns.

India must adopt a pragmatic approach in engaging the US. A mini-trade deal strategy can create a win-win economic relationship, aligning America First with Make in India. To address US concerns over trade deficits, India can increase oil and liquefied natural gas imports not only from the US but from American firms operating in third countries like Guyana and Norway, strengthening energy security and trade balance.

Defence cooperation should focus on high-performance US platforms enhancing India’s Indo-Pacific strategy. However, India must avoid obsolete platforms like Stryker infantry vehicles and F-21 combat aircraft, ensuring all procurements align with Make in India and involve full technology transfers. The US deep state’s “give and take” mindset necessitates caution, as seen in extra financial demands on the GE F-404 engine and Apache helicopter deals despite delays.

India must also be wary of US efforts to confine it to lower-value supply chain roles in semiconductors (testing, packaging), critical minerals (limited tech access), space sciences (secondary roles), nuclear cooperation (empty promises), and cybersecurity (Five Eyes biases). The US also prioritises strategic Asian allies like South Korea over India in defence diplomacy. Indian negotiators must demand reciprocity, leveraging US urgency to counterbalance China and advocating for free trade or at least unrestricted defence trade among Quad partners (Australia, Japan, US).

India remains committed to geostrategic autonomy through humanitarian statecraft rooted in “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam”. It should advocate global institutional reforms, rule-based engagement, and expanded India-US economic ties via free trade agreements, increased US investments, and recognition of India’s role as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean. A cooperative climate change diplomacy with a renewable energy focus is also vital.

On illegal migration, India must highlight the contributions of Indian Americans to the US economy, advocating for streamlined visa policies and stronger cultural and economic ties. While India respects America First, transactional diplomacy requires mutual benefit. India should be seen as a partner in making America great again.

In short, America First ties in with Make in India despite Trump’s coercive and unpredictable nature as he is, after all, a businessman who understands risks well. An engaging diplomacy can offer ultimate solutions to the world largest democracies, ensuring well-being and prosperity for people of both nations.

The writer is professor & head (CDOE), Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of FinancialExpress.com. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.

JAMMU: Pakistani soldiers violated the ceasefire by firing without provocation in forward areas along the LoC in J&K’s Poonch district Wednesday evening. Security sources said the attack was an attempt to push terrorists into India, using cover fire as a decoy.
“Our border guards gave a befitting response in equal calibre. There are no immediate reports of casualties or damage on our side,” an official source said.
The two nations had earlier agreed to the “strict observance” of all peace and ceasefire agreements. However, Pakistan has repeatedly breached the accord.
One of the most blatant violations occurred on Sept 11 last year, when gunfire from across the border killed a BSF trooper in Akhnoor sector of Jammu, and another was shot dead when Pakistan Rangers fired at Indian posts in Samba in Nov 2023.
The latest firing comes amid rising hostilities along the LoC. Security forces anticipate an early start to infiltration attempts this year as melting snow in mountainous regions eases movement for terrorists.
“The winter lull, which typically stretches for several months, may be shorter than usual this year due to rising temperatures,” a security source said.
Recent attacks highlight the growing threat. On Monday, a bullet fired from across the border hit a soldier at a forward post in Nowshera sector of Rajouri district. On Feb 8, gunfire from a forest across the LoC targeted an Army patrol in Keri sector of Rajouri.
On Tuesday, Captain Karamjit Singh Bakshi, 27, and Naik Mukesh Singh Manhas, 29, lost their lives in an IED attack near the LoC in Akhnoor.
Security sources estimate 70 to 80 Pakistani terrorists are active in J&K, with 55 to 60 in Jammu region. These “highly trained intruders” operate in small groups, equipped with weapons like M4 carbines and thermal imaging devices. Their ability to coordinate attacks in the rugged terrain, which offers ample natural cover, poses a major challenge.

The Pinaka system, developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) for the Indian Army, found its first foreign customer in 2023 when Armenia signed a $245-million deal for it. Several other countries, including Indonesia and Nigeria, have expressed interest in the weapon system.

Modi “invited the French Army to take a closer look at the Pinaka MBRL, emphasising that an acquisition of this system by France would be another milestone in Indo-French defence ties”, said a joint statement issued on Wednesday.

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France is one of India’s closest strategic partners in Europe and defence and security cooperation is among the strongest pillars of the bilateral relationship. Over the years, France has supplied a range of combat jets and submarines to India, and the two sides are in negotiations for New Delhi to acquire 26 Rafale-M combat jets and three Scorpene submarines for the Indian Navy.

The joint statement said the two leaders reviewed the collaboration for constructing the Scorpene submarines in India, including indigenisation of components, the work to fit an air independent propulsion (AIP) system developed by DRDO in the P75-Scorpene submarines and analyses for the “possible integration of the Integrated Combat System (ICS) into the future P75-AS submarines”.

India has so far acquired six submarines under the P75 Scorpene-class project, the last of which was commissioned into the navy on January 15. New Delhi now has plans for a follow-on order for three more submarines of the same class.

The two sides, the joint statement said, welcomed ongoing discussions on missiles, helicopter engines and jet engines. They welcomed the cooperation between entities in the Safran group and their Indian counterparts, which are working on the development of aero engines.

Macron also welcomed the decision to include India as an observer in the Eurodrone programme, managed by the Organisation for Joint Armament Cooperation (OCCAR), a European intergovernmental body that manages collaborative armament programmes involving Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. This, Macron said, is “another step forward in the growing strength of our partnership in defence equipment programmes”.

Besides regular military exercises and joint patrolling by maritime patrol aircraft, the two countries launched FRIND-X or France-India Defence Startup Excellence last December to foster defence innovation and partnerships. Modi and Macron stressed the early launch of a research and development framework for cooperation in defence technologies between DRDO and France’s Directorate General of Armament (DGA).

Modi and Macron also condemned all forms of terrorism, including cross-border terrorism, and called for disruption of terror financing networks and safe havens. “They further agreed that no country should provide safe haven to those who finance, plan, support, or commit terrorist acts,” the joint statement said.

Without directly naming Pakistan, the joint statement sought concerted action against all terrorists, including through designation of individuals affiliated with groups listed by the UN Security Council 1267 Sanctions Committee. Both sides reiterated their commitment to work together in the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), No Money For Terror (NMFT) and other multilateral platforms.

Pilgrims take pictures as they take a holy dip in Sangam, the confluence of Ganges, Yamuna and mythical Saraswati rivers, on the occasion of Maghi Purnima during the Maha Kumbh Mela festival in Prayagraj on February 12, 2025.

Maghi Purnima on February 12 is another sacred bathing occasion. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath emphasized the religious significance of bathing, charity, and worship, especially for Kalpavasis at the Sangam.

The one-month kalpavas period will conclude on Maghi Purnima.

With two major bathing festivals remaining, the total number of devotees taking a holy dip is expected to exceed 500 million.

Maha Kumbh, which began on January 13, will continue until February 26. The remaining key bathing dates are February 3 (Basant Panchami – Third Shahi Snan), February 12 (Maghi Purnima), and February 26 (Maha Shivaratri).

Arrangements for Magh Purnima Snan today

• To handle the large gathering of devotees, the administration has designated the area as a ‘No Vehicle’ zone. Private and public vehicles will be parked in designated lots, while only essential and emergency services will be permitted entry.

• A ban has been imposed on the vehicles of Kalpavasis. The administration has urged devotees to follow traffic rules and the planned arrangements for a smooth ‘Snan’.

• The special traffic plan will be enforced in the city from 5 p.m. today and will remain in effect until February 12. Only essential and emergency services will be allowed access to ensure the safety of devotees.

•Railway minister Ashwini Vaishnaw has reviewed arrangements at eight railway stations in preparation for Magh Purnima. The Railways have made necessary arrangements to facilitate devotees’ travel.

•Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath extended greetings to the people, seers, and devotees participating in the Maha Kumbh on Maghi Purnima.

• Adityanath said that over 45 crore devotees have taken the “holy Triveni bath” since the Maha Kumbh began on January 13 with Paush Purnima.

• To ensure a safe evacuation in case of emergencies, the special traffic plan will continue until the bathing ritual is completed on Wednesday. The administration has asked Kalpavasis to adhere to the rules and use only designated parking areas.

• Considering students’ convenience, all secondary schools in Prayagraj, across different boards, have shifted to online classes from February 7 to February 12.

• Adityanath has directed officials to ensure that no devotee, Kalpvasi, or citizen faces any inconvenience during Magh Purnima, the fourth bathing festival at Triveni Sangam.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s last day of France visit: The PM landed in Marseille earlier in the day. Here, he will inaugurate a new Consulate General of India with French President Emmanuel Macron. Apart from this, the two leaders have a series of engagements planned for Wednesday, including an expected visit to the Mazargues War Cemetery to honour the sacrifice of Indian soldiers who died fighting in the World Wars.

They will also tour the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project, an international nuclear fusion collaboration.

U.S. President Donald Trump administration is prioritising relations with India and recognises that the country has the potential to transform the Indo-Pacific region and is an “important partner” when it comes to competing effectively with China, a former White House official has said.

These remarks were made by Lisa Curtis ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the White House for a bilateral meeting with President Trump on Thursday (February 13, 2025). She has served in Mr. Trump’s first administration as the senior director for South and Central Asia in the National Security Council between 2017 and 2021.

In an online press briefing on Tuesday (February 11, 2025) hosted by Washington D.C.-based think tank — the Centre for a New American Security (CNAS) — on the eve of Mr. Modi’s visit, Ms. Curtis said, “Clearly, the Trump administration is prioritising relations with India.”

“They recognise that India is an important emerging global power and really has the potential to transform the Indo-Pacific region and the world,” Ms. Curtis, Senior Fellow and Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Programme at the think tank, said.

PM Modi will be the fourth foreign leader to visit Mr. Trump in the weeks after the American leader’s inauguration as the 47th President of the U.S.

Within less than a month of the start of Mr. Trump’s second term in the White House, he has hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Jordan’s King Abdullah II.

Ms. Curtis added that it is “quite notable that India is being given such close attention with everything that is happening domestically here under the new Trump administration.”

“And of course, the Indian government has also done its groundwork and has already taken positive steps to set a tone, a good tone for Thursday’s (February 13, 2025) meeting,” she said.

She also said the Quad is “something very important to the Trump administration”.

“We’ve already seen a meeting of the Quad foreign ministers, literally on the first day of the Trump administration. So that shows the importance that the Trump administration attaches to India and its role in the Quad,” she said.

On January 21, a day after Mr. Trump’s inauguration, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had a bilateral and Quad meeting. Mr. Rubio met Mr. Jaishankar as well as other foreign ministers of the Quad grouping Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi at the State Department on January 21, the first Quad ministerial meeting of the Trump administration’s second term.

“So that’s something that draws them together, the idea of the U.S. and India working together to preserve a free and open Indo-Pacific, to make sure that other countries have choices beyond China, to reduce dependencies on China, to diversify supply chains. All of this is important to both countries, and this is where their interests converge. So I expect that will be some of the glue that brings the U.S. and India together despite this trade friction,” she said.

With the Trump-Modi meeting coming against the backdrop of the Trump administration’s announcements and focus on trade and tariffs, Ms. Curtis said it will be necessary for the two leaders “to try to reach a trade deal.”

“But if we look back at the first Trump administration, despite a great deal of effort, they never did conclude a trade agreement. Still, the trade friction did not overwhelm the overall strategic partnership. And by the time Trump left office, I think he had left the U.S.-India relationship in a very good place,” she said.

Ms. Curtis, however, added that this time around, “we’re going to see less patience from President Trump on the trade issues, the expectations will be higher of India to make concessions to lower tariffs. And so we’ve yet to see whether India will be able to do that.”

“And I think you know this means that the trade issue could be more of an irritant this time around than it was during the first Trump administration.” In response to a question on whether Mr. Trump is looking to draw India more closely to the U.S. to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, Ms. Curtis said that even though much of the talk will be on the bilateral relationship, trade, immigration, defence purchases, the “China thread will weave through the meeting.”

“This is an underpinning theme to this meeting,” she said adding that “Trump’s advisors are very clear that India is an important partner when it comes to competing effectively with China” and pushing back against Chinese aggression.

“So I think that will be an underlying theme…We’ll have to see what the joint statement says. It’s unlikely to mention China specifically, but that will be the underlying theme of their strategic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific,” whether it is on technology, maritime security issues or defence relationships.

“The U.S.-India relationship, when it comes to defence, is very important for India in terms of dealing with the threat from China along their disputed border. And we saw that in 2020 when you had an India-China border crisis, and the U.S. really stepped up its intelligence support, provided military gear and provided a great deal of diplomatic support to India during that time of crisis,” she said.

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Ahead of the visit, Head-Americas, VFS Global Amit Kumar Sharma said that the U.S.-India relationship is poised for unprecedented growth, with increased travel expected across business, trade, leisure, and spiritual sectors.

“Businesses are eager to partner, driven by a shared ambition for sustainable growth. This is the outcome of consistent, strategic engagement at the highest levels of government and industry,” he said.

He further said that PM Modi’s visit is a “highly anticipated milestone in these joint efforts by businesses, organizations, and governments alike. Looking ahead, we can anticipate an even more dynamic U.S.-India corridor in 2025 and beyond.”

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