A cyclonic circulation is forming over the east-central Arabian Sea near the Karnataka coast, according to the India Meteorological Department. The system is expected to evolve into a low-pressure area by May 22 and could strengthen as it moves northward.

“Rainfall activity is expected to intensify in Maharashtra between May 21 and May 24 due to the influence of the cyclonic circulation,” said Shubhangi Bhute, meteorologist at the IMD. Areas likely to be affected include South Konkan, South-central Maharashtra, and Mumbai.

Thunderstorms, gusty winds forecast across districts

As per the IMD’s short-term forecast, Mumbai, Thane, Raigad, and Palghar will experience thunderstorms with lightning and moderate to heavy rainfall. Gusty winds between 50 and 60 kmph are likely. The five-day outlook indicates the unsettled weather will continue through the week.

“There is a possibility of heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms in isolated pockets. Gusty winds ranging from 30–40 kmph, and possibly higher, may also occur in affected areas,” Bhute said.

The IMD has marked the chances of these events as “very likely,” which signals a high probability of occurrence.

Heavy showers disrupt daily life in Mumbai

Mumbai witnessed intense pre-monsoon showers on Tuesday evening. Areas including Jogeshwari, Andheri, Malad, Kandivli, Borivli, and Mira Road experienced sudden downpours with thunder and lightning. Jogeshwari recorded the highest rainfall at 63mm in just one hour.

Flooding was reported on roads between Saki Naka and Andheri station, leading to traffic delays. The Andheri subway was shut after waterlogging. “People stuck in heavy traffic for the last 30 minutes,” the Chandivali Citizens Welfare Association posted on X, along with images of vehicles navigating water-filled roads.

Suburban rainfall data shows high intensity

Automatic weather stations operated by the BMC recorded substantial rainfall in both western and eastern suburbs. In Jogeshwari, HBT Municipal School received 63mm, while Malpa Dongri Municipal School followed with 57mm. An hour later, Eksar Municipal School logged 61mm.

Eastern suburbs also saw considerable rain. MCMCR Powai recorded 38mm, while the S ward office and Tembipada Municipal School registered 29mm and 27mm respectively.

Thane and its suburbs received 32.8mm of rainfall between 7.30pm and 9.30pm. Three tree fall incidents were reported, though no injuries occurred.

The IMD said thunderstorms with lightning, heavy rain, and winds of up to 60 kmph will continue in Mumbai and Thane until Friday. Saturday is expected to bring moderate rainfall.

In Raigad, conditions will worsen mid-week. Thunderstorms and gusty winds are expected on Wednesday, intensifying into heavy to very heavy rain by Thursday and Friday. Winds are expected to remain between 50 and 60 kmph. On Saturday, isolated areas may still experience heavy rainfall.

Palghar will see daily thunderstorms with light to moderate rainfall and gusty winds of 40–50 kmph until Friday. The region is expected to receive moderate rain on Saturday.

IMD warnings issued for coastal communities

Fishermen and residents in coastal regions have been advised to remain cautious. The IMD has raised alerts due to possible risky sea conditions during the active weather period.

Authorities continue to monitor the evolving system closely.