The southwest monsoon is likely to hit Kerala coast over the next 4 – 5 days, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
“The conditions are also likely to become favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon over some more parts of south Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Maldives and Comorin area (southern tip of India) and some parts of Lakshadweep area, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and some more parts of Bay of Bengal and north-eastern states,” IMD said.
Earlier, IMD in its forecast had stated that the southwest monsoon is likely to hit the Kerala coast on May 27, five days earlier than the usual onset date of June 1.
The forecast of early arrivals of monsoon by the met department comes with a model error of +/- 4 days.
Typically, the monsoon, after onset over Kerala coast in early June, covers the entire country by July. The monsoon rains start gradually receding from the northern region in the middle of September.
In 2022, the monsoon arrived over Kerala on May 29. During June-September, the country receives over 75% of its annual rainfall.
The adequate rainfall boosts hopes of robust agriculture-sector output for a second year in a row, as kharif sowing, which starts with the onset of rainfall, accounts for about 60% of the crop production. Monsoon rains also provide soil moisture for the winter crops.
Last month, IMD predicted “above normal” monsoon rainfall during June-September this year, with 89% chance of the rains being in the “normal-to excess” range.
In terms of regional distribution, the met department said ‘above-normal’ rainfall is expected over most parts of the country, except the northeast, parts of Bihar and Tamil Nadu.
Given the forecast of ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall, the government has set a record target of 354.64 million tonne (MT) for food grains production in the 2025-26 crop year (July-June).
Though higher food grains production increases the chances of another year of high growth in agriculture, the gross value added (GVA) in this primary sector of the economy is also a function of prices fetched by the farmers and other stakeholders.
