With shades of Magic, Jayden Daniels steals spotlight on wild NFL weekend: Sando’s Pick Six

With shades of Magic, Jayden Daniels steals spotlight on wild NFL weekend: Sando’s Pick Six


Let us count the days since the NFL’s final four teams last tasted the championship round.

Kansas City Chiefs: 358

Philadelphia Eagles: 722

Buffalo Bills: 1,457

Washington Commanders: 12,062

It’s been a rough few decades for Washington, but with rookie sensation Jayden Daniels upstaging a star-studded field in the divisional round, the Commanders are back in the NFC Championship Game for the first time since January 1992. That’s a span of seven presidential administrations and so long ago that this twice-renamed franchise’s 65-year-old minority owner, Magic Johnson, was still a month away from his final All-Star Game performance when the 1991 Redskins got this far.

The Pick Six column proves why Daniels’ achievement stands apart from anything any rookie quarterback has accomplished in the Super Bowl era. There’s much more to sort through following a weekend that crushed the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens while setting up an intriguing championship round. The full menu:

• Jayden Daniels steals divisional show
• What Kingsbury can prove vs. Eagles
• Mahomes, the refs and Rodney Dangerfield
• Jackson, Allen and playoff legacies
• Lions’ Campbell might need new gear
• Two-minute drill: From North to Rams

1. Like Magic, Jayden Daniels has separated from other rookie stars.

Basketball Hall of Famer and Commanders minority owner Magic Johnson was there to greet Daniels and his Washington teammates in the locker room Saturday night. That was fitting.

As a rookie point guard in 1980, Johnson had 42 points, 15 rebounds and seven assists in Game 6 of the NBA Finals after replacing the injured Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in the lineup at center. It remains one of the legendary performances for a rookie in any sport, a reflection of the rare maturity and poise Johnson possessed entering the pro ranks. The Lakers rode that performance to beat the Philadelphia 76ers and clinch the title.

Daniels has likewise shown uncommon poise while delivering signature moments in his rookie season: outdueling Joe Burrow in Week 3, completing a walk-off Hail Mary against Chicago in Week 8, tossing five touchdown passes to beat Philadelphia in Week 16 and leading the winning drive to eliminate Tampa Bay in the wild-card round. He was one of the best players on the field against Detroit on Saturday.

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Jayden Daniels, budding Commanders optimism and the psyche of a healing fan base

Daniels has done it against nearly all outside expectations. Only Carolina, Denver and New England entered the 2024 season with lower Vegas win totals than the 6.5 for the Commanders.

Five executives polled before the season combined to project Washington 14th in the NFC on average. One exec did correctly predict the Commanders would finish sixth in the NFC, in part because he thought Dallas and Philadelphia would struggle. Another exec picked the Commanders as a potential surprise team.

“I would probably go with the Commanders (as a potential surprise team) because of the quarterback, the defensive head coach and the ability to generate pressure,” this exec said, while ranking Washington 13th in his projections. “They have a solid group up front on defense. They got Jeremy Chinn. They have some players defensively who can create negatives and get after the passer. The quarterback has a chance to make people better.”

There were still grave concerns.

“I just think they reek of average across the board, of a team looking to rebuild,” one of the other execs said entering the season. “Lots of respect for DQ (Dan Quinn), but that could be the least talented roster in the NFC, outside the South.”

The Commanders proved otherwise.

Daniels has zero turnovers in two playoff games — games that pivoted on turnovers by his veteran counterparts. Tampa Bay lost 5.6 EPA on Baker Mayfield’s critical fumble during its 23-20 defeat to Washington in the wild-card round. Detroit lost 17.4 EPA on three interceptions and a fumble by Jared Goff, losing to the Commanders 45-31. The EPA lost on those turnovers was enough to bridge the point differentials in those games.

Daniels is the fifth rookie starting quarterback to reach the championship round in the Super Bowl era while starting at least eight combined regular-season and postseason games, per Pro Football Reference. The other four got there with huge assists from their defenses and/or special teams. Not Daniels, whose production has helped overcome statistical deficiencies in those other areas so crucial to winning at the highest levels.

That places Daniels in another class among rookies. Brock Purdy, Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger also reached the championship round as rookies, but as the table below shows, those quarterbacks played for teams that stood among the NFL’s top four in combined EPA on defense and special teams.

Daniels leads championship round rookie QBs

The Commanders ranked 24th this season, forcing Daniels and the offense to overcome. They did.

Not pictured: Shaun King, who started seven total games for the 1999 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That team reached the NFC title game on the strength of a defense featuring four future Hall of Famers (Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks, Ronde Barber, John Lynch) and a five-time Pro Bowl choice (Hardy Nickerson).

Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson and C.J. Stroud produced at high levels as rookies for teams that reached the playoffs, but none reached the championship round.

Daniels’ production through two playoff games resembles the two-game production for Wilson in 2012, with one huge difference: Daniels has taken only one sack, while Wilson took seven. Wilson also had to overcome a Seattle defense that struggled in the playoffs when he was a rookie. His Seahawks team, which featured Quinn as its defensive coordinator in 2013 and ’14, fell short in 2012 before reaching the next two Super Bowls as the defense became elite.

Daniels has a shot at getting to the Super Bowl as a rookie. His Commanders opened as 5.5-point underdogs against the Eagles.

One key could be whether offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury can stay a step ahead of the NFC East-rival Eagles, who should know his offense better than the Lions knew it.

2. Kingsbury is eviscerating his reputation as a play caller whose offense struggles late in the season. What if that wasn’t the real problem?

Kingsbury seemed perplexed in November when a reporter asked about his offenses failing to sustain fast starts during a season.

The question arose during a three-game losing streak as Daniels fought through injured ribs.

As the season progressed and the offense rebounded, I wondered whether the perceptions about Kingsbury had more to do with opponent familiarity than the calendar. What if division opponents have a better read on Kingsbury? His offenses have featured dual-threat quarterbacks with elite running skills. Just as we have sometimes seen Lamar Jackson struggle in the AFC North, could Kingsbury’s offense simply bog down against teams that are wiser to his less conventional ways?

If that were true, Kingsbury’s teams would feel the effects later in the season, when there are more division games on the schedule, but it wouldn’t be a factor every week. And it might not factor at all in the playoffs, unless Kingsbury were to face a division opponent, which he will in the NFC Championship Game.

To test the theory, I created the table below. It shows how Kingsbury’s Arizona (2019-22) and Washington (2024) offenses have fared in division and non-division games when his starting quarterbacks, Kyler Murray (Cardinals) and Daniels (Commanders), were in the lineup.

Kingsbury splits with Murray/Daniels at QB

Opp Type Division Non-Division

OFF PPG

20.7

26.6

OFF TD/G

2.3

3.0

Yards/game

335.5

377.6

Yards/play

5.1

5.7

EPA/play

-0.04

+0.07

EPA/drive

-0.20

+0.40

Explosive play %

11.2%

15.7%

Team OFF EPA/G

-2.4

+4.3

Team D/ST EPA/G

-2.3

-0.3

W-L-T

9-17 (.346)

30-20-1 (.598)

There’s a huge drop in performance in those division games — much bigger than the slight drops for most teams when facing division opponents.

What will it mean against the Eagles? Kingsbury’s offense did improve statistically in its second game against Philadelphia this season, but that was a wild game featuring seven total turnovers, five by Washington. The Commanders trailed on 94 percent of plays but won on Daniels’ fifth touchdown pass of the game, with 10 seconds remaining.

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An opposing coach thought the Commanders were getting a better version of Kingsbury than Arizona got, mostly because offensive coordinator is an easier job than head coach/play caller, and also because Daniels is more mature early in his career than Murray was. Another opposing coach thought Kingsbury had grown as a caller, leaning more on the running game. Working under a defensive-minded head coach in Quinn could be a factor there, as Quinn would set the Commanders’ playing style. And then there is Daniels, of course.

“This kid (Daniels) wants to be pushed and challenged,” one of the coaches said. “You can see it. You can hear it from the quotes with the team. You see it with his swagger. Then add that he is a pretty dynamic passer.”

3. You aren’t the only one sick of watching Patrick Mahomes draw critical calls for roughing the passer and unnecessary roughness. It’s all part of the modern-day Tier 1 toolbox, unfortunately.

Forget the conspiracy theories. NFL officials have assessed 47 penalties against the Chiefs in the fourth quarters and overtimes of one-score games over the past two seasons, including playoffs. Those same officials have assessed 48 penalties against the Chiefs’ opponents in those same critical situations. The yardage totals are similarly close: 307 yards against the Chiefs, compared to 340 yards against their opponents.

Yes, Mahomes has a 7-0 record when Clay Martin referees his games, counting the Chiefs’ 23-14 victory over the Houston Texans in the divisional round Saturday. But as the table below shows, Mahomes has undefeated records with lots of referees. He’s a combined 25-0 with Brad Rogers, Tra Blake, Jerome Boger, Adrian Hill, Scott Novak and Alan Eck.

Mahomes’ starting record by referee

Referee W-L Win%

Clay Martin

7-0

1.000

Brad Rogers

5-0

1.000

Tra Blake

4-0

1.000

Jerome Boger

4-0

1.000

Alex Kemp

4-0

1.000

Adrian Hill

4-0

1.000

Scott Novak

2-0

1.000

Alan Eck

2-0

1.000

Shawn Hochuli

10-2

.833

Shawn Smith

9-2

.818

Bill Vinovich

8-2

.800

Tony Corrente

4-1

.800

Land Clark

4-1

.800

Craig Wrolstad

4-1

.800

Carl Cheffers

10-3

.769

John Hussey

9-3

.750

Ronald Torbert

3-1

.750

Walt Anderson

2-1

.667

Clete Blakeman

6-5

.545

Brad Allen

4-4

.500

Totals

104-26

.800

Mahomes might win 80 percent of his starts with you or me wearing stripes and the white hat.

No matter what the evidence says, the optics did not look right Saturday as Mahomes drew two highly questionable 15-yard penalties to help win a game in which Houston outgained Kansas City by more than 100 yards. Especially when Mahomes sometimes tries to trick officials into throwing additional flags.

“The only flops I’ve seen better than him are Rodney Dangerfield in ‘Back to School,'” one opposing coach said.

The first-quarter penalty called against the Texans’ Will Anderson Jr. for roughing the passer (video above) fits into a category that can be tricky for officials. Anderson’s helmet did make contact with Mahomes. The league’s replay-assist mechanism can come into play if there were no contact made at all, but not to assess how forcible the contact might have been. That penalty sustained a field goal drive after Mahomes had thrown incomplete on third-and-8.

The second penalty, for unnecessary roughness, helped the Chiefs cross midfield in the third quarter on their way to a touchdown for a 20-12 lead. On that play (video below), Mahomes invited contact by turning back toward the middle of the field. He slid late. Converging defenders ran into each other.

Mahomes avoided significant contact. Outrage ensued. ESPN’s Troy Aikman and the network’s officiating expert, Russell Yurk, said it was a bad call. Texans coach DeMeco Ryans said after the game his team knew it would have to overcome everybody, meaning the officials as well.

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“I think he’s a great manipulator,” the coach said of Mahomes. “He knows what to do: run to the border of the field, slow down, step on the white line, get hit. There are timing elements. And then, once every so often, he will cut back and get the additional 15 yards.”

It’s a master class in leveraging rules designed to protect quarterbacks. It’s what Aaron Rodgers would do if he had entered the league 15 years later.

“The rules in Rodgers’ prime of running were not the same,” the coach said. “Rodgers was still living in the echo of Drew Bledsoe’s collapsed lung (actually a ruptured artery) if I don’t get out of bounds quick enough. Now, it’s just a farce.”

4. Josh Allen and the Bills are one victory away from the Super Bowl. Lamar Jackson is 17 days away from collecting another MVP trophy (most likely). What does it mean?

Mark Andrews lost a fumble and dropped the tying two-point conversion pass in the fourth quarter to short-circuit a potential classic finish between MVP favorites Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen for a berth in the AFC Championship Game against Kansas City.

If not for the drop, the Ravens’ defense would have had to stop Allen from driving for a go-ahead field goal with 1:33 left and two timeouts, just to force overtime. Getting a stop there was hardly certain.

Neither quarterback was spectacular in the frosty conditions, but both led long fourth-quarter scoring drives before Buffalo escaped with a 27-25 victory. The finish puts Allen, Bills coach Sean McDermott and Buffalo one victory from the Super Bowl and a chance to cement legacies.

What about Jackson?

A two-time MVP already, he’s almost certain to add a third trophy soon, based on recently released All-Pro voting, which favored Jackson over Allen by a wide margin. But his teams are 3-5 in the playoffs, and Jackson, though solid in this postseason, still hasn’t dazzled on the biggest stages.

He threw an interception early against the Bills, lost a fumble and suffered from three dropped passes totaling 23 air yards. He threw what could have been the tying 24-yard touchdown pass to Isaiah Likely with 1:33 remaining, but then watched helplessly as Andrews slid on the slick surface while dropping a soft, catchable conversion toss. This was Jackson’s first game with more than one turnover since he had two in the AFC Championship Game last season. Those four turnovers, though not entirely Jackson’s fault, cost Baltimore 20 EPA in games the Ravens lost by a combined nine points, per TruMedia.

Jackson blamed himself for failing to look off the safety on his interception, and for trying to make something happen when he fumbled, instead of falling on the ball following a bad snap.

The chart below compares EPA per play in the regular season and playoffs for quarterbacks with at least six postseason starts since 2000. I’ve excluded Brett Favre, Kurt Warner and Steve McNair because they made significant postseason starts before 2000, the earliest season for which data is available through TruMedia (of the three, only Warner was better during playoffs since 2000). The ascending line represents a baseline of equal performance in both the regular season and playoffs.

Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez and Colin Kaepernick reside in the upper left as outliers whose postseason production on a limited number of starts (six each) far exceeded their modest regular-season performances over many more games.

Some quarterbacks with lots of postseason starts — Tom Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Drew Brees — reside near the line. That suggests performance tends to even out as the postseason samples grow. Peyton Manning never caught up to his regular-season prowess in the playoffs despite making 26 postseason starts since 2000 (he started one playoff game before that and struggled in defeat).

Jackson is trending in the right direction because his playoff production over the past two postseasons has improved (there are two dots for him on the chart, showing the positive shift). He still lags well below his contemporaries, notably Allen, in the playoffs. And because of the way things ended Sunday, he won’t get a chance to change that until next season.

5. The Lions own the NFL’s best regular-season record over the past two seasons and have two playoff victories to show for it. Here are four takeaways.

Coach Dan Campbell became emotional after his top-seeded Lions’ 45-31 defeat to sixth-seeded Washington in the divisional round Saturday. His team dominated during the regular season despite a long list of injuries on defense, only to lose at home by two touchdowns as an eight-point favorite.

My Lions takeaways:

• Campbell must evolve: When evaluating Campbell’s aggressive fourth-down strategy six weeks ago, an executive from another team wondered if the Lions’ coach could shift gears for the playoffs.

“I have a concern about their head coach not clicking into playoff mode, where teams really count the possessions and he wants to keep pushing his fourth-down strategy,” this exec said at the time. “That was costly in their playoff loss (to San Francisco) last season. Can he adjust to the way those games are played, when each one of those possessions is higher leverage?”

Campbell’s unapologetically aggressive approach has permeated the Lions, to great benefit. But in a tight game against upstart Washington, the Lions lost partly because they could not regulate their aggression. This was not a fourth-down thing as much as it was a mindset thing.

“I know how they got there, but at some point, you have to acknowledge you are depleted on defense and ask how you can keep the ball out of the other team’s hands,” a veteran coach said. “They call a reverse pass when they are in a 10-point game with plenty of time, with a lot of talented players on that offense, in a game where they are getting 8 yards a carry on the ground.”

Trailing 38-28 early in the fourth quarter, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson called for talented (but inconsistent) receiver Jameson Williams to throw on first-and-10. Campbell could have overridden the trick play but did not. The resulting interception proved fatal to the Lions’ chances.

“I would have liked for (Williams) to run, but listen, take a risk … it didn’t work out,” Campbell said after the game.

Goff’s sack and lost fumble in the first quarter resulted from the Lions passing on third-and-1 from the Washington 17-yard line. Teams over the past five seasons have run 80 percent of the time with that down-and-distance from that area of the field. Not only did the Lions pass, but also they opted for a five-man protection. Leading 7-3, Detroit trailed 10-7 the next time it possessed the ball.

Goff’s pick six late in the first half resulted from him trying to convert a second-and-14 with a risky throw into a disguised coverage 18 yards downfield instead of picking up roughly half the yardage with a safer pass to a wide-open Sam LaPorta.

These, too, were errors of aggression.

“I’m not sure those quarterback errors are overly aggressive plays,” a coach from an opposing team said. “But the reverse and letting the kid throw it, I mean, come on. A non-quarterback threading that ball in there? These possessions are precious.”

Does Campbell have another gear? He arguably did not in this game, or when he went for it on fourth-and-2 from the San Francisco 28-yard line while leading 24-10 in the third quarter of the NFC title game last season. Instead of taking a three-score lead in that game, the Lions failed to get a first down. The 49ers scored quickly, and the Lions lost control of the game.

The Lions own an NFL-best 27-7 (.794) record over the past two seasons but have just two playoff victories, over the Rams and Bucs last season, to show for it. That’s rough.

• Both coordinators auditioning: There’s no way to know whether having Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn dedicating mental bandwidth to head-coaching interviews/prospects affected Detroit, but it’s hard to fathom how it could help. Two years ago, the Eagles felt as though their Super Bowl preparations suffered for those reasons.

The penalty Detroit incurred for having 12 defenders on the field before a fourth-and-2 play from the Lions’ 5-yard line produced a first down and a 3.2-point EPA swing, tied for the largest EPA swing among 55 penalties for “too many men” enforced across the league this season, per TruMedia. These things happen, especially for teams with lots of injuries, but the timing was horrible for the Lions.

• Goff does not elevate: I’ve called Goff a great good-team quarterback, meaning he’s excellent when the situation around him is very good. He doesn’t overcome as well as top quarterbacks do, through their superior mobility or ability to weather chaotic pockets. Two of his interceptions Saturday resulted from a bad decision (the pick six) or a bad throw (the first interception, failing to lead his receiver to the opposite hash in the end zone).

Goff has 45 touchdown passes with nine interceptions against non-playoff teams over the past two seasons. That 5-1 ratio drops to 1.5-1 (27 TDs, 18 INTs) against playoff teams. The decline for the league at large is smaller, from 2.2-1 to 1.7-1. Goff tossed five picks against Houston in Week 10 and three more Sunday.

• Defensive injuries real: Glenn is getting consideration for head-coaching jobs partly because his defense improved over the years and outperformed expectations through catastrophic injuries this season. Those injuries might have reached a breaking point when it mattered most, against a prolific Washington offense featuring a dynamic dual-threat quarterback.

6. Two-minute drill: The big, bad NFC North imploded in the playoffs. The league has never seen anything quite like it since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. Also, how about those Rams?

It was a great season for the NFC North, until it was not.

The four NFC North teams combined to outscore non-division opponents by 8.7 points per game in the regular season. That average margin ranked first among 376 divisions since 1970, per Pro Football Reference. That makes the North’s 0-3 playoff meltdown a demise of historic proportions. The 15-2 Lions, 14-3 Vikings and 11-6 Packers suffered double-digit defeats, getting outscored 94-50. The fourth-place Chicago Bears fared better by not playing.

The five divisions since 1970 ranked Nos. 2-6 in average point margin against non-division opponents combined to go 13-6 in the playoffs. All five of those divisions placed teams in the conference championship game. Two produced Super Bowl winners, including the 2013 NFC West, which featured Seattle and San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game.

The table below shows how epic the meltdown was for the 2024 NFC North.

How most dominant divisions fared in playoffs

Division (Margin) Playoff W-L Playoff Highlight

2024 NFC-N (+8.7)

0-3

2013 NFC-W (+8.3)

5-1

1976 AFC-C (+8.1)

1-1

2008 NFC-E (+7.5)

2-2

2002 NFC-S (+7.3)

4-1

2005 AFC-W (+7.1)

1-1

The Lions were the 11th No. 1 seed since the 2002 divisional realignment (out of 46 total) to rank among the NFL’s top 10 in EPA per play on both offense and defense, while also ranking that high in combined EPA on defense/special teams, per TruMedia. These 11 elite No. 1 seeds produced six Super Bowl appearances, with the 2016 Patriots and 2017 Eagles winning it all.

Most of these teams fell off the following season, presumably through natural regression. The Lions have ascended every season under Campbell, but that becomes tougher after a 15-2 season.

Elite No. 1 seed results & futures, 2002-24

Elite Top Seed Playoffs Next Season

Lost DIV

TBD

Lost AFC CG

Lost DIV

Lost SB

Lost WC

Lost SB

Missed playoffs

Lost DIV

Lost DIV

Won SB

Lost DIV

Won SB

Lost SB

Lost SB

Missed playoffs

Lost SB

Lost DIV

Lost DIV

Lost SB

Lost DIV

Missed playoffs

Detroit became the fourth of these elite No. 1 seeds to go one-and-done in the playoffs. The three others bounced back eventually, but not always right away. All three kept their franchise quarterbacks for multiple additional seasons.

The top-seeded 2008 New York Giants missed the playoffs in each of the next two seasons, then won the Super Bowl as a 9-7 wild-card team. The 2012 Denver Broncos, losers at home to Baltimore in double overtime, reached the Super Bowl in the following season and won it two years after that. The 2019 Ravens remained competitive over the next few seasons without a playoff breakthrough. Of those three, only Denver changed offensive coordinators the next season, as the Lions will following Johnson’s expected departure for a head-coaching job. Mike McCoy’s departure to become the Chargers’ head coach didn’t affect Manning.

• Rams managed to give themselves a chance: The Rams could not stop the Philadelphia Eagles’ Saquon Barkley from rushing for 205 yards against them Sunday, just as they could not stop him from rushing for 255 against them during a regular-season game between the teams. What the Rams could do, and what they did do, was stop the clock in the nerve-racking final minutes of their eventual 28-22 divisional-round defeat. That represented progress.

One year ago, the Rams burned timeouts on offense early in the third and fourth quarters of their wild-card game against Detroit, rendering them helpless to stop the clock when the Lions were protecting a 24-23 lead in the final minutes.

Coach Sean McVay responded by hiring John Streicher to help with in-game decisions, among other things. Streicher, who held a similar job under Mike Vrabel in Tennessee, is one of a growing number of specialists in the game-management field. Head coaches still make the decisions. Some empower their advisers. Others do not. There are sometimes louder, more powerful voices on the headsets, and probably no perfect processes.

Whatever the case was for the Rams this season, McVay stopped the clock on defense against the Eagles at the 2:44, 2:39 and 2:35 marks while trailing 28-22. That allowed him to get the ball back to quarterback Matthew Stafford at the Los Angeles 18-yard line in time to run two offensive plays before the two-minute warning. Stafford then took the Rams to the Philly 13 with more than a minute remaining before the drive bogged down in the snow.

It was a rough way to end the season for a Rams team that struggled to handle the ball in difficult conditions. There soon will be questions to answer about the futures of Stafford and receiver Cooper Kupp, among others. But for a team that watched Aaron Donald retire and then started the season 1-4, there were many worse ways it could have ended. Among them: Philly running out the clock to rob Stafford and the offense of that one final chance to win the game.

• Liking Bills’ chances: Buffalo’s offense owns five of the 19 best EPA games against the Chiefs’ defense since 2021, counting playoffs. The Bills’ offense over that span has actually been better against the Chiefs than it has been against the rest of the league.

The Bills handed the Chiefs their only defeat in which Kansas City played its starters this season, 30-21 in Week 11. Their 10.1 EPA on offense in that game is the 18th-best figure by a Chiefs opponent in 79 total games since 2021. It’s why I like Buffalo’s chances of winning in Kansas City, despite knowing better than to pick against Mahomes in such situations. The Bills’ defense also should match up better against the Chiefs than it matched up against the Ravens with Derrick Henry.

As an executive from another team pointed out, the Chiefs are generally less convicted than the Ravens about running the ball, and less physical in their ground game, which could mean Buffalo’s defense survived its toughest test of the playoffs Sunday night.

Mahomes and the Chiefs will have something to say about that, of course.

(Photo: Michael Owens / Getty Images)





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2025 NFL divisional-round winners and losers: Jayden Daniels shines, Jared Goff struggles in playoff upset

2025 NFL divisional-round winners and losers: Jayden Daniels shines, Jared Goff struggles in playoff upset


Neither No. 1 seed played extremely well during Saturday’s two divisional round playoff matchups. One top-seeded team advanced, while the other suffered a gut-wrenching loss. 

The Chiefs outlasted a spunky Texans team and will now await the winner of Sunday night’s game between the Bills and the Ravens. Kansas City will play in its seventh consecutive AFC title game and its sixth at Arrowhead. The Chiefs were the only top seed to advance on Saturday, though, as the Lions were stunned by the Commanders, who advanced to their first conference title game since 1991. 

Here’s a look at Saturday’s biggest winners and losers. 

Daniels is having the greatest rookie season in NFL history. He was unflappable on Saturday night, going 22 of 31 for 299 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran for 52 yards on 15 carries while leading the Commanders to victory. 

One of Daniels’ biggest completions was a 12-yard dart to Terry McLaurin on a fourth-and-2 play that set up Jeremy McNichols‘ short touchdown run that gave Washington an insurmountable, 17-point lead midway through the fourth quarter.

Daniels and McLaurin had teamed up for a 58-yard touchdown earlier in the game. 

As good as Saturday night was for Daniels, it was equally that bad for Goff, who once again came up short in a big game. Goff’s rocky night included a pick six, an interception in the end zone just before halftime and an interception late in the game when the Lions were trying to pull off a miracle comeback. Goff also committed a fumble in the first quarter that set up Washington’s first touchdown. 

Goff is now 4-5 in the playoffs dating to his years with the Rams, who traded him to Detroit after Los Angeles coach Sean McVay apparently decided that Goff wasn’t capable of winning it all. The Lions may be thinking the same thing after Saturday night. The Lions appear married to Goff, however, after they signed him to a four-year extension last offseason. 

Winner: Kliff Kingsbury 

While Ben Johnson gets a lot of attention, his counterpart had a pretty good night. In fact, it seemed like everything Kingsbury called worked against a Lions defense that was on its heels the entire game. 

As was the case all year, Kingsbury wasn’t afraid to put the game on Daniels’ shoulders on several big possession downs. And unlike last week, Kingsbury’s offense established much-needed balance, as the Commanders ran for 183 yards and three touchdowns on 41 carries. 

All told, the Commanders’ 45 points were the most in franchise history for a road playoff game. That’s saying something, as Washington has a rich history that includes three Super Bowl wins. 

Speaking of Johnson, he is probably regretting his called trick play that called for Jameson Williams to throw downfield to Jahmyr Gibbs early in the fourth quarter and the Lions trailing by 10. Williams’ pass was picked off by rookie Mike Sainristil (one of his two picks on the night), and the Commanders scored a touchdown on their ensuing drive, extending their lead to 45-28. 

Loser: Lions defense

Detroit’s defense was the team’s biggest question mark entering the playoffs, and it was the main reason why the Lions joined the 2011 Packers as the only 15-win teams to lose their first playoff game. The unit, which has dealt with a myriad of injuries, simply couldn’t hang with Daniels and the Commanders offense. 

Specifically, the Lions’ pass rush was an issue that was never solved after Aidan Hutchinson suffered a season-ending injury in Week 5. The Lions struggled to put pressure on Daniels, who was not sacked. Detroit’s lack of a pass rush was especially felt on fourth down, as Washington was 3 of 4 on its fourth-down attempts. 

The Chiefs’ future Hall of Fame tight end broke Jerry Rice’s record by recording his ninth career 100-yard receiving game in the postseason. Kelce’s big night included the game-winning touchdown catch shortly after the Texans had gotten to within a point of the Chiefs. 

In all, Kelce caught seven passes for a season-high 117 yards. He also joined Rice as the only players in history with at least 20 career touchdown grabs. Kelce is three touchdown catches from taking that record from Rice, who is widely regarded as the greatest receiver of all time. 

Loser: Texans special teams 

It was a bad day at the office for Houston’s special teams units. They started the game by allowing a 63-yard punt return that turned into a 78-yard gain following an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. Adding insult to injury was Kris Boyd, who committed the penalty, shoving special teams coach Frank Ross on the sideline. 

The Texans later missed two field goals and an extra point attempt that would have tied the score in the fourth quarter. Houston’s poor special teams play undermined gritty efforts by its offense and defense. 

Stroud played well extremely well in a losing effort. Despite injuring his knee in the first quarter, Stroud consistently made plays in the air and on the ground, especially on possession downs. Trailing 13-3, Stroud led the Texans on consecutive scoring drives that included a 15-play, 82-yard drive that took over 10 minutes off the clock. 

The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year finished the game with 245 yards on 19 of 28 passing. He was also the game’s third-leading rusher with 42 yards on six carries. 

Loser: Officiating 

Unfortunately, questionable officiating was one of the main takeaways during and after the Chiefs’ win. Several questionable calls were made against the Texans that included multiple unnecessary roughness penalties against Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. One of those penalties drew the ire of Hall of Fame quarterback Troy Aikman, who was on the call for ESPN. 

“We knew it was going to be us versus the refs going into this game,” Texans pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. said afterward. 

The Chiefs defensive end had a career-high three sacks that included one on fourth down with Kansas City protecting an eight-point lead. Karlaftis spearheaded a Chiefs pass rush that sacked Stroud eight times. Kansas City’s pass rush was one of the keys to the Chiefs’ win. 

Loser: Some betters in Texans-Chiefs

The Chiefs, who were 9.5-point favorites, had an 11-point lead late in the game after blocking a Texans field goal. But Kansas City gave up two points moments later after intentionally taking a safety. That decision had clear implications from a betting standpoint. 

Bettors that took Kansas City earlier in the week were still OK, though, as the Chiefs were initially tabbed as 8.5-point favorites. 





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What to know from Sunday’s dramatic NFL playoff games

What to know from Sunday’s dramatic NFL playoff games




CNN
 — 

On Sunday, in both Philadelphia and upstate New York, it came down to the final drives in the snow with freezing temperatures making the ball slippery and tough to handle.

It was January football at its very best: Dramatic, unpredictable and back-and-forth heavyweight fights.

In the first bout, the Philadelphia Eagles survived a late charge by the Los Angeles Rams to win by a score of 28-22. The Eagles’ had thought they put the game away on a long run from Saquon Barkley but the Rams made it interesting late, driving all the way down the field looking for a winning touchdown until they couldn’t complete one final pass in a Philly snowstorm.

In the late game, it was the Buffalo Bills surviving a late rally by their opponent, the talented and tough Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens scored a touchdown with 1:33 to go to come within two, but their star tight end Mark Andrews bobbled the two-point conversion and couldn’t haul it in, costing his team a chance to send it into overtime.

The Bills and Eagles now advance to the conference championship. The Washington Commanders will come to Philadelphia to play the Eagles at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, followed by the Bills traveling to Kansas City to face the Chiefs at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Here’s what to know from Sunday’s dramatic games:

The temperature was below 20 degrees at kickoff and a light snow was falling at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York, as the Bills and Ravens locked horns in one of the most anticipated divisional round games in recent memory.

When the dust settled, the Bills did just enough to outduel the Ravens in an epic battle that lived up to the hype.

With a pair of leading MVP candidates going head-to-head at quarterback and a shot at the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship on the line, the stakes couldn’t have been higher.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson runs the ball against Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin (3) during the second quarter.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens got the first possession and showed why they’re one of the NFL’s most dynamic offenses as Jackson led an opening drive culminating in an 11-yard touchdown pass to a wide-open Rashod Bateman.

Next, it was the Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s turn, and he responded in kind as he led a scoring drive of his own to tie the game up at 7-7 with a one-yard touchdown run from Ray Davis.

If there has been one consistent knock against two-time league MVP Jackson, it’s been that he doesn’t always play his best football on the biggest stage.

Jackson gave his critics more ammunition in the first half with a pair of costly mistakes.

After the Bills TD, Jackson aimed for Bateman on a deep pass but sailed the ball far over his receiver’s head and into the arms of safety Taylor Rapp, though Buffalo failed to convert the turnover into points.

On the Ravens’ next possession, Jackson was sacked by Bills safety Damar Hamlin and fumbled the football. Buffalo linebacker Von Miller scooped the ball up and ran it down to the Baltimore 24-yard line.

The Bills took advantage this time, as Allen powered in a one-yard touchdown run.

After a Ravens field goal, Buffalo gave themselves some breathing room with another scoring drive on their ensuing possession.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen carries the ball into the end zone to score a touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens during the second quarter.

The Bills asserted their ground game dominance on a nine-play, 70-yard drive that ended with another Allen TD, this time on a four-yard keeper just before the half ended.

Buffalo took a 21-10 lead into intermission – the largest halftime deficit for the Ravens all season, according to CBS.

But like the bout most fans were expecting, the Ravens had a counterpunch in the second half, and it came in the form of running back Derrick Henry.

Henry racked up 58 yards on the Ravens’ first two possessions of the second half, which resulted in a pair of scores – a 47-yard field goal by Tucker and a five-yard TD run from Henry – as Baltimore cut the Bills’ lead to 21-19.

Buffalo was able to stem the tide with a scoring drive of their own that churned four and half minutes off the clock and culminated in a booming 51-yard field goal from Tyler Bass to make the score 24-19 Bills.

The Ravens offense was on the move again when disaster struck. After Jackson completed a pass 16 yards downfield to Mark Andrews, Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard punched the ball out while the tight end was fighting for extra yards.

Bernard recovered the fumble near midfield, setting up another Bass field goal to extend the lead to 27-19 with just 3:29 left in the game.

After some miscues earlier in the game, Jackson was lights-out on the Ravens’ final drive.

Jackson picked the Bills defense apart, deftly moving around in the backfield, buying time and finding open receivers downfield on an eight-play, 88-yard drive.

Jackson capped the drive with a pinpoint throw to Isaiah Likely for a 24-yard touchdown to make the score 27-25.

On the ensuing two-point conversion attempt, Jackson rolled out and tossed a short pass to a back-pedaling Andrews, but the tight end bobbled and dropped the ball as he fell across the goal line.

Buffalo Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard stripped the ball from Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews in a crucial play during the fourth quarter.

Tucker attempted an onside kick for Baltimore, but Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas recovered to snuff out any chance of a Ravens miracle.

The Bills ran the clock out to secure a hard-fought 27-25 win and set a date with the Chiefs with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

After the game, Allen did not hold back on his admiration of his counterpart Jackson.

“I just got so much respect and love for him, the way he plays the game,” Allen told CBS. “He’s a true competitor. He’s a true football player. One of the greatest ever step on the football field, so nothing but love.”

Per the NFL, Allen now has seven playoff rushing scores in 12 games after two against the Ravens, tying him for second all-time in postseason QB rushing TDs with Tom Brady, who did it in 48 playoff games. Steve Young holds the record with eight in 22 postseason games.

When asked about the upcoming showdown with the NFL’s reigning dynasty, Allen did not give the Chiefs any bulletin board material.

“I just know we’re going to work hard. We’re going to have a heck of a week. We’re going to enjoy this one tonight and turn our attention to the Chiefs tomorrow,” Allen said.

“We know what they are. They’re the perennial of what you want to be in the NFL. You got to beat them to get past them.”

The Chiefs have knocked the Bills out of the playoffs three of the past four seasons, but Buffalo dealt Kansas City one of its only two losses in Week 11 of the regular season.

In a game where harsh winter weather and an injury to quarterback Jalen Hurts made the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense one-dimensional, MVP-candidate running back Barkley literally carried the Eagles to a 28-22 win over the Los Angeles Rams and a berth in the NFC Championship game.

The Eagles had an astonishing 285 rushing yards in the game, headlined by 205 yards from Barkley, who had touchdown runs of 62 and 78 yards in the game.

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) runs the ball for a touchdown during the second half.

Coming into a cold Lincoln Financial Field far away from home, the Los Angeles Rams embraced their role as an inspiration to their home city with wildfires continuing to impact Southern California. The Eagles showed no sympathy, scoring a quick TD on a 44-yard touchdown run from Hurts.

The Rams didn’t seem fazed by Philly’s fast start. LA quarterback Matt Stafford led the team down the field on a calculated 13-play, 67-yard drive that culminated with a short TD toss to tight end Tyler Higbee to make it 7-6 Rams.

The defenses settled down and forced subsequent punts but another big, long play from Philadelphia got the home crowd back on their feet.

Toward the end of the first quarter, Barkley made his presence known with a dashing run through a seemingly helpless Rams defense for a 62-yard touchdown to put the Eagles back on top 13-7.

After the Rams tacked on a Joshua Karty 30-yard field goal to bring Los Angeles to within three, the snow started to really fall at ‘The Linc’ as the Eagles took a 13-10 lead into halftime.

Grounds crew workers clear snow off of the field during the game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Playoff at Lincoln Financial Field.

The snow intensified during the intermission, and when play resumed snow blanketed the playing field. The Eagles grounds crew had to hustle to clear snow off the hash marks, sidelines and numbers on the field during stoppages in play for the remainder of the game.

The Rams tied the game with a Karty field goal, but the Eagles answered once again as Elliott came through for Philly with a field goal of his own to retake the lead at 16-13.

The field goal came at a cost for the Eagles though, as Hurts appeared to injure his knee when he was sacked awkwardly two plays prior to the score. Hurts didn’t seem himself the rest of the game after that play.

On the Eagles’ next possession, the hobbled quarterback was sacked in the end zone for a safety that brought the Rams to within one point at 16-15.

With the Rams appearing to pick up momentum, the Eagles defense came up huge.

Defensive lineman Jalen Carter punched the ball out of the hands of LA running back Kyren Williams, and it was scooped up by Isaiah Rodgers, who returned it inside the Rams’ 10-yard line. The Eagles converted the turnover into a 23-yard field goal from Elliott to make the score 19-15.

The Philadelphia defense forced another Rams fumble on the ensuing possession when Nolan Smith sacked Stafford and knocked the ball loose, and Zack Baun dove on it. The Eagles capitalized with another field goal from Elliott to extend their lead to 22-15.

Barkley delivered the dagger on the Eagles’ next offensive possession.

With the injured Hurts seemingly unable to throw the ball effectively, Barkley took the handoff on the first play of the drive and rumbled 78 yards to the end zone to give Philly a seemingly commanding 28-15 lead. This was not the first time that Barkley ran roughshod over the Rams this season. In a Week 12 showdown, Barkley had 255 rushing yards and a pair of TDs against Los Angeles.

Barkley became the first player in NFL history with 200+ scrimmage yards in a game against the same opponent in both the regular season game and a playoff game in the same season, according to the NFL.

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) runs the ball for a touchdown during the second half.

The Rams rallied late, scoring a touchdown to cut the lead to six and then getting the ball back before the two-minute working with a chance at a game-winning drive.

Stafford led the Rams down to the Eagles 13-yard line, but Carter delivered another big play for the Eagles, sacking the quarterback to force a fourth-and-11 with the game hanging in the balance.

On fourth down, Stafford’s pass sailed over the head of receiver Puka Nacua, and the Eagles took over on downs with just 26 seconds remaining.

One kneel-down from Hurts was all it took to send Philadelphia to a 28-22 victory and a date with their NFC East rival Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship game next Sunday.

Buoyed by the big win, Barkley and Hurts were all smiles after the game.

Saquon Barkley, who became just the ninth 2,000 yard rusher in NFL history this season, said he enjoyed the atmosphere on Saturday, telling NBC, “The elements were great, but the atmosphere was even better. Our fans are amazing. It was a close one, but that’s playoff football, and at the end of the day, we got the job done.”

“I don’t know if it’ll snow next week, but rain, sleet, or snow, the Eagles train to go,” Hurts told NBC.

When asked if Hurts loved to play in the snow, he answered, “I love playing football.”



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NFL playoffs divisional round schedule, odds, expert picks: Best bets, where to watch, TV, live stream

NFL playoffs divisional round schedule, odds, expert picks: Best bets, where to watch, TV, live stream


The best week of the NFL playoffs is here, as divisional round football will be played this weekend. Two teams have already punched their ticket to Championship Sunday as the Kansas City Chiefs knocked off the Houston Texans and the Washington Commanders stunned the Detroit Lions.

On Sunday, two NFL MVP favorites face off in Buffalo and the Eagles and Rams get ready for a potential snow game. Are you wondering how to bet this weekend? We got you covered.

As we do every week, we’ve collected all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them in one place, so you can get sports betting picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff and more. Ready? Let’s jump in.

All NFL betting courtesy of SportsLine consensus.  

Which picks can you make with confidence this week? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine, as its incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Time: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (NBC and fubo, try for free)
Open: Eagles -6, O/U 45.5

“The Rams got stuck playing in the dreaded Monday night game during the wild-card round, which has been a nightmare for almost everyone who has ever played in it. Over the past two years, three teams have won on Monday in the wild-card round and they’ve combined to go 0-3 in the divisional round, which makes it sound like I should stop thinking about this pick right now and just take the Eagles.

Of course, if there’s any team that can overcome the Monday night curse, it’s the Rams and that’s because they’ve already done it before. The Rams won the Monday night wild-card game in 2021 and that victory ended up propelling them all the way to a win in Super Bowl LVI. 

This time around, if it’s going to propel them to the Super Bowl, they’re going to have to get through the Eagles first, and to do that, they’re going to have to figure out how to tackle Saquon Barkley. If you want to know what it’s like to try and tackle Saquon Barkley, go out in your street right now and try to tackle a car. Actually, don’t do that, I don’t need CBS Sports getting sued. DON’T TACKLE A CAR. The only reason I brought that up is because when these two teams met back in Week 12, the Rams looked like they were trying to tackle a car every time Barkley touched the ball. They couldn’t tackle him and that was a big reason why he rushed for a franchise-record 255 yards in a game where the Eagles rushed for 314. 

If Barkley gets anywhere near that number again, the Eagles are going to roll. If Barkley gets near 200, the Eagles will probably roll, but he might have trouble putting up a huge number against the Rams defense this time around and that’s because they’ve stepped up their game since Week 12. Apparently, the Rams have been using that game as motivation, because in the seven games since the Eagles’ loss, the Rams have only surrendered 104.1 rushing yards per game. 

The Rams defense is playing at a completely different level right now: They Rams have held four of their past five opponents to SINGLE-DIGIT points and the only time a team scored more than 10 came in Week 18 when the Rams were resting their starters.

As good as the Rams have been on defense, the Eagles have been better. They’ve been playing at a completely different level than everyone else all season: They gave up the fewest yards per game during the regular season, fewest passing yards per game and the second fewest points per game. They beat up every one they face. If they can get after Matthew Stafford, it’s going to be a long day for a Rams team that went just 1-5 this year in games where Stafford was sacked at least three times. The Eagles went 6-0 when recording three or more sacks this year, including Week 12, when they sacked Stafford five times. 

With both defenses playing so well, this basically comes down to which offense I trust more, and right now, that’s the Rams. The Rams could struggle in the cold weather, but it’s expected to be 40 degrees in Philadelphia on Sunday, which is about as close as it gets to tropical weather in Philly during the month of January.”

John Breech is calling for an upset in Philly this week! To check out his picks for the divisional round, click here. 

How about a player prop? Will Brinson encourages you to take Kyren Williams Over 12.5 receiving yards.

“The usage is going to be there for Williams, who has zero competition in the Rams backfield now after Blake Corum broke his forearm. He got 19 touches in a blowout Rams win where Los Angeles’ defense scored a touchdown (both reduce the number of opportunities for starters in theory). Williams played on 87 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps in their domination of Minnesota, so it’s a good bet he could be even higher in a game where the Rams are big underdogs. Additionally, he hit this number against a good Minnesota run defense last week by being utilized as a passer, getting three targets from Matthew Stafford and securing all three for 16 yards. I think we can get here multiple ways. If the Rams come out passing early against a stout Philly run defense, Williams will be involved to some degree. And if the Rams are trailing, you better believe Williams will see some targets as Philly starts to get home with the pass rush and Stafford needs easier looks. There’s a world where he’s forced to stay in and block, but even then we should get some screens or quick-hitters when he chips and releases. One early catch could clear this number, honestly.”

To check out Brinson’s best bets for the divisional round, click here.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Time: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Open: Bills -1.5, O/U 52.5

“Baltimore ran for 271 yards in the first meeting. It won’t be that easy Sunday in Buffalo against a healthier Bills’ defense, but Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry give the Ravens a substantial edge on the ground. Baltimore also gives up the fewest rushing yards per game. Even if No. 1 wideout Zay Flowers (knee) does not return, Jackson still has plenty of weapons led by Henry, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely and Rashod Bateman. Look for the Ravens to win a high-scoring classic.”

SportsLine NFL expert Larry Hartstein, who tied for 52nd out of 1,598 entries in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest after going 53-34-3 against the spread, has three top plays for a Divisional Round NFL parlay. The Ravens are one of his picks. To check out his other best bets, head on over to SportsLine. 

“This is a heavyweight battle that should be fascinating to watch unfold. Remarkably, the oddsmakers have made the Bills a home underdog at Highmark Stadium. While jarring at first glance, I think it’s warranted as the Ravens are a force at the moment. The combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry as a rushing duo in the backfield was built for playoff games like this. It’s also a favorable matchup with the Bills allowing 4.5 yards per rush this season, which ranks in the bottom half of the league. While Jackson and Henry rightfully take the lion’s share of attention, do you know who the No. 1 scoring defense, total defense and third-down defense has been in the NFL since Week 11? Baltimore. Their resurgence defensively is what has them as a bona fide Super Bowl contender and live to come out of Buffalo with their ticket stamped for the AFC Championship.”

Tyler Sullivan believes the Ravens are favored for good reason. To read his breakdown of each game this weekend, click here.

Mike Tierney, who is on a 53-27-2 roll with Ravens games, has just released his best bets for the divisional round. We can tell you he’s leaning Under when it comes to the total, but to check out Tierney’s official pick on the spread, head on over to SportsLine. 





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